Russ Gray's Blog

I’m having a poker night this weekend and as a side attraction we’re all chipping in to get the Hatton/Pacquiao PPV. This is a huge fight for Hatton as a win would really establish him as one of the top pound-for-pound boxers in the world – an accolade he was also chasing when he lost to Floyd Mayweather at the end of 2007.

Hatton is currently at 3.0 on Betfair (2/1 against), making him the considerable outsider against the highly-regarded and lightning-fast Pacman. I’m a little inclined to think those odds are too long – that Pacman’s price has been brought in too far by his victory over De La Hoya. That was marketed as the ‘Dream Fight’, but subsequently it’s been acknowledged that De La Hoya was something of a spent force at the time, so Pacman’s victory may not carry the weight in reality that it does in the promotional material.

So if we assume the prices are a little distorted by the Dream Fight result, how does the fight break down? Hatton will be his normal marauding self, despite Mayweather’s training. I expect better head movement and footwork than we’re used to from the Hitman, but fundamentally he’ll still be a front-foot brawler with a touch of class.

The smaller Pacman will focus on being fast, elusive, and peppering Hatton with combinations. The big test in the early rounds will be whether Hatton can land some big body shots. If he can, he’s got a chance to win – Hatton has huge power and Pacman will be in trouble if a couple get through. On the other hand, if Pacman can dodge the bombs and land the combos, there’s a good chance Hatton will cut, which will work against him. Against Mayweather the cut (and the behaviour of the ref) frustrated Hatton and he started to lose discipline, which ultimately got him picked off.

I’m not sure Pacman has the power to KO Hatton in this weight class, so it’s really a case of Hatton being able to land a couple of big shots in the first, ooh, 5 rounds. If he does that, then even if Pacman survives it’ll slow him down and Hatton will get a late stoppage. If Pacman stays out of trouble, he can take a comfortable points victory. He may get a TKO if he really opens up with combinations in the mid-late rounds, but I doubt it.

I do think Pacman is the slight favourite going into this, but he’s not as big a favourite as the odds indicate, so for that simple reason I’ll be having a couple of quid on Hatton as a value bet.